Sun, May 3 2026 • 10:30 •
Estadi Municipal de Badalona
Expected Goals
1.39 (league 1.41)
1.03 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.8% | 26.9% | 27.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
12.3%
0 - 1
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| L'Hospitalet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Badalona | 0 | 8.8% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 12.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
L'Hospitalet carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Badalona -26.5, L'Hospitalet +38.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Badalona
vs
L'Hospitalet
Elo gapL'Hospitalet +25
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3029.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3029.9
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1484.8 | 1545.1 |
| Form Elo | 1479 | 1563.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.1 | 1514.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1422.7 | 1600.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1485 | 1541.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -26.5 | +38.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Badalona last-5 Elo change: -26.5; L'Hospitalet last-5 Elo change: +38.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 87% |
| Attack | 17% | 100% |
| Defense | 33% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 50% | 44% | 47% | 56% | 44% | 50% |
| Draws | 44% | 31% | 38% | 19% | 19% | 19% |
| Loses | 6% | 25% | 16% | 25% | 38% | 31% |
BadalonaWWDDWWDWWLWDDWDDWDDWLWWWDWDWDLLL
L'HospitaletWWWDLWLDWWLWLWWDLLDWLLWLLWDWWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 16 | 39 | 23 | 30 | 53 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 10 | 15 | 25 | 14 | 22 | 36 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Badalona | L'Hospitalet | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 75% | 50% | 78% | 56% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 22% | 41% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 3% | 28% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 13% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-4 | 6-2 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Badalona | L'Hospitalet |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 24% | 76% |
| Att | 13% | 87% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 57% | 43% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 43.0% | 57.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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