Sun, May 3 2026 • 10:30 •
Estadi Municipal
Expected Goals
2.05 (league 1.41)
0.76 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.5% | 19.8% | 12.9% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.6%
1 - 0
12.3%
2 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Lleida Esportiu | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| L'Escala | 0 | 6.0% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.6% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
L'Escala carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: L'Escala -28.8, Lleida Esportiu -12.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
L'Escala
vs
Lleida Esportiu
Elo gapL'Escala +95
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2859.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2859.8
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1460 | 1399.8 |
| Form Elo | 1436.2 | 1385.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.8 | 1457 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.3 | 1326.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1440.9 | 1508.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -28.8 | -12.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. L'Escala last-5 Elo change: -28.8; Lleida Esportiu last-5 Elo change: -12.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 20% |
| Attack | 58% | 17% |
| Defense | 17% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 44% | 25% | 34% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Draws | 38% | 25% | 31% | 38% | 44% | 41% |
| Loses | 19% | 50% | 34% | 38% | 56% | 47% |
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Lleida EsportiuLLDLDLLLDWLDDWWLLDDWDLLDLDLLLDDD
League goals
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 18 | 47 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| GA total | 23 | 25 | 48 | 15 | 25 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 78% | 47% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 41% | 47% | 13% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 22% | 16% | 0% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | L'Escala | Lleida Esportiu |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 78% | 22% |
| Def | 29% | 71% |
| Poisson Distribution | 73% | 27% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 59.3% | 40.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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