Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Instalación Deportiva Butarque
Expected Goals
1.30 (league 1.40)
0.38 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.7% | 29.1% | 10.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
24.2%
0 - 0
18.6%
2 - 0
15.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Carabanchel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Leganés II | 0 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.7% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Leganés II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 116 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Leganés II -2.9, Carabanchel +5.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Leganés II
vs
Carabanchel
Elo gapLeganés II +116
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo3026.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3026.4
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1553.8 | 1472.6 |
| Form Elo | 1536.8 | 1470.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.5 | 1467.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1663.1 | 1398.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1608.8 | 1602.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -2.9 | +5.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Leganés II last-5 Elo change: -2.9; Carabanchel last-5 Elo change: +5.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 72% | 28% |
| Defense | 56% | 78% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
62%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 50% | 45% | 31% | 13% | 23% |
| Draws | 40% | 19% | 29% | 31% | 40% | 35% |
| Loses | 20% | 31% | 26% | 38% | 47% | 42% |
Leganés IIDDWWDWWDWWLDLWWDWWWWLLLDLDLWWLD
CarabanchelLWDLWDLWDWLLLLLDDDDLDWLWLLDDWDL
League goals
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 38 | 59 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 9 | 19 | 28 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Leganés II | Carabanchel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 52% | 58% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 26% | 16% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 10% | 10% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-7 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 4-3 | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Leganés II | Carabanchel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 72% | 28% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 61.8% | 38.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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