Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 09:30 •
Estadio Las Veredillas
Expected Goals
1.91 (league 1.41)
1.77 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.7% | 21.6% | 35.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.5%
2 - 1
8.1%
1 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Alcobendas Sport | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Torrejón | 0 | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Torrejón carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 128 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Torrejón +22.6, Alcobendas Sport -7.0.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Torrejón
vs
Alcobendas Sport
Elo gapTorrejón +128
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo3068.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3068.2
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1580.8 | 1487.4 |
| Form Elo | 1593.6 | 1484.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.3 | 1526.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1601.8 | 1460.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1490.1 | 1478.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.6 | -7.0 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Torrejón last-5 Elo change: +22.6; Alcobendas Sport last-5 Elo change: -7.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 40% |
| Attack | 56% | 33% |
| Defense | 61% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 47% | 50% | 48% | 31% | 40% | 35% |
| Draws | 33% | 19% | 26% | 19% | 33% | 26% |
| Loses | 20% | 31% | 26% | 50% | 27% | 39% |
TorrejónLWLLWWDDLWLLWWWWWWLLWWDDDDWDWDW
Alcobendas SportWLLLDDWDLLLWWWLWLLWWDWDLLWDLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 25 | 52 | 14 | 26 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 20 | 23 | 43 | 21 | 22 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 77% | 74% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 45% | 42% | 39% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 10% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 2-0 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Torrejón | Alcobendas Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65% | 35% |
| Att | 63% | 38% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 57.8% | 42.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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