Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 •
Estadio El Montecillo
Expected Goals
0.90 (league 1.34)
0.79 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.0% | 34.0% | 29.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
18.3%
1 - 0
16.6%
0 - 1
14.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Mirandés II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arandina | 0 | 18.3% | 14.5% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.6% | 13.1% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 5.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Arandina +13.6, Mirandés II -28.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Arandina
vs
Mirandés II
Elo gapMirandés II +6
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo2963.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2963.5
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1461.5 | 1502 |
| Form Elo | 1471.7 | 1479.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482 | 1514.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1441.7 | 1487.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1499.4 | 1563 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +13.6 | -28.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Arandina last-5 Elo change: +13.6; Mirandés II last-5 Elo change: -28.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 50% | 39% |
| Defense | 56% | 44% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 19% | 25% | 44% | 31% | 38% |
| Draws | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 25% |
| Loses | 38% | 50% | 44% | 25% | 50% | 38% |
ArandinaLDWLLWLWLDLDDLDLWLWDLLDWLLWLDWDD
Mirandés IIWLLWWLDLLDDWWLWWDWWLWDLWDLDLLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 13 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 16 | 27 | 43 | 13 | 18 | 31 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arandina | Mirandés II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 78% | 63% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 38% | 38% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 16% | 16% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arandina | Mirandés II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…