Fri, May 1 2026 • 11:00 •
Campo Los Dominicos
Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.34)
0.95 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.7% | 31.9% | 34.3% |
best score tips
0 - 0
15.1%
0 - 1
14.4%
1 - 0
14.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Almazán | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| La Virgen del Camino | 0 | 15.1% | 14.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 14.2% | 13.5% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: La Virgen del Camino -20.5, Almazán -24.5.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
La Virgen del Camino
vs
Almazán
Elo gapLa Virgen del Camino +16
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo2989.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2989.9
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1485.2 | 1504.7 |
| Form Elo | 1464 | 1501.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.9 | 1479.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1430.8 | 1550.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1528.2 | 1535.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.5 | -24.5 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. La Virgen del Camino last-5 Elo change: -20.5; Almazán last-5 Elo change: -24.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 20% |
| Attack | 39% | 39% |
| Defense | 56% | 61% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
62%
FT probability
2.5+
44%
FT probability
3.5+
31%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 31% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 25% | 34% |
| Draws | 38% | 13% | 25% | 38% | 31% | 34% |
| Loses | 31% | 44% | 38% | 19% | 44% | 31% |
La Virgen del CaminoWDWDLLWLLDLWDWWDWWLWWLLDDDLWWLLL
AlmazánDDDLLWWWDLDDWDDLDLWWDDWWWLWLWLLL
League goals
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 19 | 46 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 20 | 33 | 14 | 22 | 36 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 63% | 72% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 25% | 41% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 13% | 22% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 1-2 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | La Virgen del Camino | Almazán |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 67% | 33% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 53.3% | 46.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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