Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal Miguel Moranto
Expected Goals
0.85 (league 1.38)
1.03 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.1% | 31.8% | 39.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.8%
0 - 0
15.3%
1 - 1
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Mijas Las Lagunas | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Huétor Tájar | 0 | 15.3% | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.9% | 13.3% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Mijas Las Lagunas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 99 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Huétor Tájar -6.8, Mijas Las Lagunas -0.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Huétor Tájar
vs
Mijas Las Lagunas
Elo gapMijas Las Lagunas +99
Home / draw / away29% / 19% / 52%
Expected home share36%
Combined Elo3074.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3074.8
Elo home share
36%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.3 | 1604.5 |
| Form Elo | 1477.7 | 1595.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.2 | 1552.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1434.1 | 1557.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1512.7 | 1637.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.8 | -0.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Huétor Tájar last-5 Elo change: -6.8; Mijas Las Lagunas last-5 Elo change: -0.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 46% | 54% |
| Defense | 46% | 69% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
61%
FT probability
2.5+
43%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 33% | 19% | 26% | 69% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 40% | 25% | 32% | 19% | 33% | 26% |
| Loses | 27% | 56% | 42% | 13% | 27% | 19% |
Huétor TájarLLDLLWWDLWLDDWLDDLLDLDWWWLLDDWL
Mijas Las LagunasLWWDLWWWDWWWWWWWDLDWDWWLDLLWDDW
League goals
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 18 | 37 | 25 | 13 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 87% | 68% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 35% | 32% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 6% | 13% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-3 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-2 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Huétor Tájar | Mijas Las Lagunas |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 34.8% | 65.4% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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