Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 •
Ciudad Deportiva del Granada CF
Expected Goals
1.61 (league 1.37)
0.58 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 62.0% | 24.4% | 13.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.1%
2 - 0
14.6%
0 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Mancha Real | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Granada II | 0 | 11.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 14.6% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.8% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Granada II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Granada II -12.3, Mancha Real +18.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Granada II
vs
Mancha Real
Elo gapGranada II +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2916.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2916.4
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1453.3 | 1463.1 |
| Form Elo | 1448.3 | 1467.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1496.6 | 1460.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1473.8 | 1425.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1455.1 | 1533.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.3 | +18.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Granada II last-5 Elo change: -12.3; Mancha Real last-5 Elo change: +18.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 77% | 38% |
| Defense | 15% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 19% | 29% | 44% | 13% | 29% |
| Draws | 47% | 31% | 39% | 31% | 20% | 26% |
| Loses | 13% | 50% | 32% | 25% | 67% | 45% |
Granada IIDDWLDWLDWWWWLDLDDDLDDLWLDWLWLDL
Mancha RealWDLWDWDLLLDLDLWLLDLWWLLLLWWDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 16 | 42 | 18 | 8 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 17 | 24 | 41 | 13 | 20 | 33 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Granada II | Mancha Real | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 81% | 55% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 45% | 26% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Granada II | Mancha Real |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 21% | 79% |
| Poisson Distribution | 71% | 29% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 56.8% | 43.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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