Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — Spain
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 • Estadio Municipal
Not Started

UD San Pedro

—

Torreperogil

Expected Goals
1.36 (league 1.37) 0.31 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.7% 27.6% 8.4%
best score tips
1 - 0
25.5%
0 - 0
18.7%
2 - 0
17.4%
Score & goals probability table
Torreperogil
0 1 2 3 4 5
UD San Pedro 0 18.7% 5.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
1 25.5% 8.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 17.4% 5.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

UD San Pedro carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 109 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: UD San Pedro +38.0, Torreperogil +42.8.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
UD San Pedro Elo 1526.6 · +38.0
vs
Torreperogil Elo 1452.8 · +42.8
Elo gapUD San Pedro +109
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2979.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2979.4
Elo home share 65%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric UD San Pedro Torreperogil
Overall Elo1526.61452.8
Form Elo1546.81482.3
Home / Away Elo1524.71449.7
Attack Elo1471.31375
Defense Elo1540.61512.8
Last 5 Elo change+38.0+42.8

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. UD San Pedro last-5 Elo change: +38.0; Torreperogil last-5 Elo change: +42.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricUD San PedroTorreperogil
Played55
Form73%80%
Attack62%54%
Defense69%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

58%
FT probability

2.5+

41%
FT probability

3.5+

29%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

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Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric UD San Pedro Torreperogil
HATHAT
Played151631161531
Wins47%25%35%44%7%26%
Draws33%25%29%19%20%19%
Loses20%50%35%38%73%55%
UD San PedroLLLLLLWDWWDWLWLLWDWLDLDDWDWDWDW
TorreperogilLDLLDDLLDLLLLLWWDLLLLLLWDWWWWLW

League goals

Metric UD San Pedro Torreperogil
HATHAT
GF total17173415722
GF avg1.11.11.10.90.50.7
GA total92635142640
GA avg0.61.61.10.91.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineUD San PedroTorreperogil
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.571%65%48%77%
1.529%32%23%29%
2.510%10%0%19%
3.50%3%0%3%
4.50%3%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricUD San PedroTorreperogil
HATHAT
Clean sheets8311527
Failed to score4597916

Penalties

MetricUD San PedroTorreperogil
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricUD San PedroTorreperogil
Wins24
Draws22
Losses66

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-22-00-2
Biggest losses1-25-10-34-1
Goals For3322
Goals Against2534

Model comparison

MetricUD San PedroTorreperogil
Form48%52%
Att53%47%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution82%18%
H2h29%71%
Goals0%100%
Total52.4%47.6%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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