Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Juan Manuel Azuaga
Expected Goals
0.75 (league 1.38)
0.81 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.3% | 35.8% | 33.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
20.9%
0 - 1
17.0%
1 - 0
15.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Motril | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Torre del Mar | 0 | 20.7% | 16.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 15.7% | 12.8% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Torre del Mar -4.2, Motril -6.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Torre del Mar
vs
Motril
Elo gapMotril +5
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3185.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3185.4
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1572.8 | 1612.6 |
| Form Elo | 1568.7 | 1618.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1554.4 | 1556.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1480.6 | 1632.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1649.5 | 1608.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.2 | -6.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Torre del Mar last-5 Elo change: -4.2; Motril last-5 Elo change: -6.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 11% | 32% |
| Defense | 95% | 79% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 60% | 25% | 42% | 63% | 47% | 55% |
| Draws | 33% | 50% | 42% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| Loses | 7% | 25% | 16% | 6% | 20% | 13% |
Torre del MarDLWWWDWDWLDDWWWLWWDLDWDLDWDDWDD
MotrilWDWWWWDWWDDLWDWLLWWDWDDWWWDLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 14 | 34 | 33 | 19 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 9 | 13 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Torre del Mar | Motril | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 55% | 84% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 16% | 48% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 0% | 23% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-0 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Torre del Mar | Motril |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 80% | 20% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 73% | 27% |
| Total | 55.7% | 44.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…