Sun, May 3 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.38)
0.84 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 50.1% | 27.2% | 22.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.9%
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Granada II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marbelli | 0 | 10.6% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Marbelli carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 118 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Marbelli +8.4, Granada II -7.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Marbelli
vs
Granada II
Elo gapMarbelli +118
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo2987.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2987.1
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1535.2 | 1451.9 |
| Form Elo | 1534.1 | 1448.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.8 | 1450.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1451.6 | 1478.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1603.6 | 1448.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.4 | -7.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Marbelli last-5 Elo change: +8.4; Granada II last-5 Elo change: -7.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 33% |
| Attack | 36% | 71% |
| Defense | 71% | 29% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 38% | 19% | 28% |
| Draws | 19% | 38% | 28% | 50% | 31% | 41% |
| Loses | 25% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 50% | 31% |
MarbelliWWDLLDLWWDLDWLWDWWLDWWLLWDLDLWWD
Granada IIDDWLDWLDWWWWLDLDDDLDDLWLDWLWLDLD
League goals
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 13 | 34 | 28 | 16 | 44 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 13 | 14 | 27 | 19 | 24 | 43 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marbelli | Granada II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 63% | 72% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 22% | 47% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 0% | 16% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marbelli | Granada II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 62% | 38% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 71% | 29% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 54.3% | 45.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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