Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 17:00 •
Estadio Ciudad de Lucena
Expected Goals
2.25 (league 1.39)
0.35 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 78.3% | 14.5% | 4.4% |
best score tips
2 - 0
18.8%
1 - 0
16.8%
3 - 0
14.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Tomares | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ciudad de Lucena | 0 | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.8% | 5.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.8% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 14.1% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Ciudad de Lucena carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 195 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ciudad de Lucena +41.0, Tomares -0.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Ciudad de Lucena
vs
Tomares
Elo gapCiudad de Lucena +195
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo3147.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3147.3
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1653.4 | 1493.9 |
| Form Elo | 1685.3 | 1495.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1591.6 | 1509.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1651.9 | 1477.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1661.3 | 1536.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +41.0 | -0.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Ciudad de Lucena last-5 Elo change: +41.0; Tomares last-5 Elo change: -0.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 93% | 38% | 65% | 31% | 27% | 29% |
| Draws | 7% | 38% | 23% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Loses | 0% | 25% | 13% | 44% | 47% | 45% |
Ciudad de LucenaWLWLWDWWDDWDWDDWWLWLWWWWWDWWWWW
TomaresDLDLLDWLLLLWLDWLWLWLWDDLDWDLWWL
League goals
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 39 | 23 | 62 | 19 | 11 | 30 |
| GF avg | 2.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 7 | 14 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 38 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 84% | 42% | 52% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 19% | 26% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 6% | 13% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ciudad de Lucena | Tomares |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 68% | 32% |
| Def | 57% | 43% |
| Poisson Distribution | 86% | 14% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 89% | 11% |
| Total | 76.8% | 23.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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