Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal Antonio Almendro
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 1.39)
1.95 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.9% | 22.0% | 48.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.5%
1 - 2
9.3%
2 - 1
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Córdoba II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Castilleja | 0 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Córdoba II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Castilleja +17.2, Córdoba II +14.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Castilleja
vs
Córdoba II
Elo gapCórdoba II +32
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2904.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2904.7
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1419.1 | 1485.6 |
| Form Elo | 1409.3 | 1499.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.9 | 1497.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1428.8 | 1472.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1335.8 | 1514.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.2 | +14.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Castilleja last-5 Elo change: +17.2; Córdoba II last-5 Elo change: +14.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 60% |
| Attack | 55% | 73% |
| Defense | 55% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 33% | 6% | 19% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Draws | 20% | 31% | 26% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 47% | 63% | 55% | 38% | 53% | 45% |
CastillejaDDLLLWLLLLDLDDWWDWLLDLLLLLDWLWL
Córdoba IIDWWLLDWWWDLLWDLLLLLDLLDDWLWLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 10 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 34 | 57 | 15 | 27 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Castilleja | Córdoba II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 52% | 81% | 74% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 26% | 45% | 32% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 19% | 10% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 13% | 6% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-7 | 7-1 | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Castilleja | Córdoba II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 39% | 61% |
| H2h | 88% | 13% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 52.8% | 47.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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