Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco
Expected Goals
1.40 (league 1.39)
1.07 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 44.2% | 26.7% | 28.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
1 - 0
11.8%
0 - 1
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Conil | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pozoblanco | 0 | 8.3% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Pozoblanco carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 18 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pozoblanco -28.7, Conil -10.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Pozoblanco
vs
Conil
Elo gapPozoblanco +18
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo2994.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2994.8
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1489.1 | 1505.7 |
| Form Elo | 1476 | 1500.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.5 | 1493.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1468 | 1480.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1475.6 | 1493.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -28.7 | -10.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Pozoblanco last-5 Elo change: -28.7; Conil last-5 Elo change: -10.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 60% |
| Attack | 44% | 89% |
| Defense | 0% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 38% | 32% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Draws | 53% | 19% | 35% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 20% | 44% | 32% | 25% | 47% | 35% |
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ConilLDLLWWLWWDLWDLDDLWDWWLWDWLWLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 15 | 37 | 25 | 14 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 18 | 23 | 41 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pozoblanco | Conil | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 65% | 74% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 42% | 35% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 16% | 10% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pozoblanco | Conil |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 18% | 82% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 37% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 39.2% | 60.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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