Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Estadio Municipal de La LÃnea de la Concepción
Expected Goals
1.68 (league 1.39)
0.72 (league 1.00)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 59.7% | 23.8% | 15.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.3%
2 - 0
12.8%
1 - 1
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Utrera | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Linense | 0 | 9.1% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.3% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.2% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Linense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 71 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Linense +2.9, Utrera +12.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Linense
vs
Utrera
Elo gapLinense +71
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo3032.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3032.9
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Linense | Utrera |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1534.6 | 1498.3 |
| Form Elo | 1525.1 | 1509.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1503.8 | 1473.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.1 | 1485.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1592.2 | 1515.1 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.9 | +12.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Linense last-5 Elo change: +2.9; Utrera last-5 Elo change: +12.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Linense | Utrera |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 36% | 45% |
| Defense | 55% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Linense | Utrera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 38% | 39% | 44% | 13% | 29% |
| Draws | 47% | 38% | 42% | 31% | 20% | 26% |
| Loses | 13% | 25% | 19% | 25% | 67% | 45% |
LinenseLLDWWDWDWWDDWDDWWWWLDDDLDDWWLDL
UtreraLLLWDLLLWLDLWLDLWWLLDLWDDWLWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Linense | Utrera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 22 | 42 | 22 | 14 | 36 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 17 | 29 | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Linense | Utrera | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 55% | 71% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 32% | 35% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 6% | 10% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Linense | Utrera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Linense | Utrera |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Linense | Utrera |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Linense | Utrera |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 44% | 56% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 50.7% | 49.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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