Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:15 •
Estadio San Martì
Expected Goals
0.69 (league 1.56)
0.65 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.7% | 39.3% | 28.9% |
best score tips
0 - 0
26.2%
1 - 0
18.2%
0 - 1
16.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Platges Calvià | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mercadal | 0 | 26.2% | 16.9% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Mercadal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mercadal -19.4, Platges Calvià +18.2.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Mercadal
vs
Platges Calvià
Elo gapMercadal +30
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2957.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2957.6
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1476.3 | 1481.3 |
| Form Elo | 1466.3 | 1478.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.9 | 1503.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1403.4 | 1484.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1561.1 | 1502.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.4 | +18.2 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Mercadal last-5 Elo change: -19.4; Platges Calvià last-5 Elo change: +18.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 67% |
| Attack | 18% | 47% |
| Defense | 41% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 53% | 33% | 43% | 44% | 27% | 35% |
| Draws | 7% | 20% | 13% | 19% | 20% | 19% |
| Loses | 40% | 47% | 43% | 38% | 53% | 45% |
MercadalWLWDWLWWWLLDWLLLWWWLDLWWDLWLLL
Platges CalviàLDWDWWLWWDLLDLWLLLLWLWLLLDWWLDW
League goals
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 13 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 36 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 12 | 18 | 30 | 19 | 18 | 37 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mercadal | Platges Calvià | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 60% | 57% | 55% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 23% | 35% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 13% | 23% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 0-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mercadal | Platges Calvià |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 23% | 77% |
| Att | 27% | 73% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 36% | 64% |
| Total | 33.2% | 66.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…