Sun, Jan 4 2026 • 14:00 • Estadio Silvestre Carrillo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.42 (league 1.62) 0.16 (league 0.93)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
70.1% 25.5% 4.0%
best score tips
1 - 0
29.2%
2 - 0
20.8%
0 - 0
20.5%
Score & goals probability table
Arucas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mensajero 0 20.5% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 29.2% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMensajeroArucas
Played55
Form53%53%
Attack25%50%
Defense94%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)1 | 0.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

60%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Mensajero Arucas
HATHAT
Played68148614
Wins83%13%43%50%0%29%
Draws17%50%36%25%50%36%
Loses0%38%21%25%50%36%

Form: Mensajero: WLLWDWDWDWWDDL • Arucas: DLLWDLDWLDLWWD

League goals

Metric Mensajero Arucas
HATHAT
GF total1472110212
GF avg2.30.91.51.30.30.9
GA total310138614
GA avg0.51.30.91.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMensajeroArucas
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.564%50%57%71%
1.550%21%21%21%
2.521%14%7%7%
3.57%7%0%0%
4.57%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMensajeroArucas
HATHAT
Clean sheets437224
Failed to score145246

Penalties

MetricMensajeroArucas
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMensajeroArucas
Wins22
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-23-1—
Biggest losses—4-10-23-1
Goals For5331
Goals Against2423

Model comparison

MetricMensajeroArucas
Form50%50%
Att33%67%
Def86%14%
Poisson Distribution89%11%
H2h80%20%
Goals63%38%
Total66.8%33.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Mensajero or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.96 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.30 @ Betano
Away3.88 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.17 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.01 @ 188Bet
No1.85 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Mensajero = 1.42 (league 1.62), Arucas = 0.16 (league 0.93)

Arucas
0 1 2 3 4 5
Mensajero 0 20.5% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 29.2% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 20.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 9.8% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 70.1% · Draw 25.5% · Away win 4.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1