Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:30 •
Estadio Antonio Domínguez Alfonso
Expected Goals
1.47 (league 1.50)
0.43 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | 26.0% | 10.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
22.0%
2 - 0
16.2%
0 - 0
14.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Unión Sur Yaiza | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Marino | 0 | 14.8% | 6.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Marino carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 105 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Marino -6.6, Unión Sur Yaiza +14.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Marino
vs
Unión Sur Yaiza
Elo gapMarino +105
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo2902
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2902
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1486 | 1416 |
| Form Elo | 1479 | 1432.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494.4 | 1442.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1506.5 | 1404.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1514.8 | 1468 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.6 | +14.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Marino last-5 Elo change: -6.6; Unión Sur Yaiza last-5 Elo change: +14.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 47% |
| Attack | 33% | 67% |
| Defense | 44% | 11% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 33% | 19% | 26% | 44% | 13% | 29% |
| Draws | 33% | 56% | 45% | 13% | 27% | 19% |
| Loses | 33% | 25% | 29% | 44% | 60% | 52% |
MarinoLWWLLWDLDWDWLDWLWDWLDDDLDDDDDDL
Unión Sur YaizaWWLWDLWDWDLLLDLLLLLLLWLWDLLLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 24 | 43 | 22 | 9 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 10 | 25 | 35 | 17 | 25 | 42 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 74% | 52% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 32% | 23% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 6% | 19% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 0% | 6% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Marino | Unión Sur Yaiza |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 36% | 64% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 77% | 23% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 48.7% | 51.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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