Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 — Spain
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:30 • Campo de la Constitucion
Not Started

Yeclano II

—

Santa Cruz

Expected Goals
0.56 (league 1.29) 2.03 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.0% 18.7% 70.5%
best score tips
0 - 2
15.5%
0 - 1
15.3%
0 - 3
10.5%
Score & goals probability table
Santa Cruz
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yeclano II 0 7.4% 15.2% 15.5% 10.6% 5.4% 2.2%
1 4.1% 8.4% 8.6% 5.9% 3.0% 1.2%
2 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
3 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Santa Cruz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Yeclano II -9.5, Santa Cruz +3.2.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Yeclano II Elo 1402.1 · -9.5
vs
Santa Cruz Elo 1484.1 · +3.2
Elo gapSanta Cruz +47
Home / draw / away32% / 25% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo2886.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2886.2
Elo home share 43%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Yeclano II Santa Cruz
Overall Elo1402.11484.1
Form Elo1401.61490.4
Home / Away Elo1446.41515.1
Attack Elo1388.21462.3
Defense Elo1418.71522
Last 5 Elo change-9.5+3.2

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Yeclano II last-5 Elo change: -9.5; Santa Cruz last-5 Elo change: +3.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricYeclano IISanta Cruz
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack45%36%
Defense18%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 14 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

64%
FT probability

2.5+

45%
FT probability

3.5+

32%
FT probability

BTTS

56%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Yeclano II Santa Cruz
HATHAT
Played151631161531
Wins20%13%16%31%53%42%
Draws20%38%29%25%13%19%
Loses60%50%55%44%33%39%
Yeclano IIWWLLLDDLDLLLLLLDDWLLLDDDLWDLLWL
Santa CruzDWWWWDLWLLLWDWWLLLWLDLWLDWDLWLW

League goals

Metric Yeclano II Santa Cruz
HATHAT
GF total12921141933
GF avg0.80.60.70.91.31.1
GA total242549181432
GA avg1.61.61.61.10.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineYeclano IISanta Cruz
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%71%58%61%
1.513%45%29%29%
2.56%29%16%10%
3.50%13%3%3%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricYeclano IISanta Cruz
HATHAT
Clean sheets3695712
Failed to score97167613

Penalties

MetricYeclano IISanta Cruz
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 66.67%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 33.33%
Total13

Streaks

MetricYeclano IISanta Cruz
Wins24
Draws31
Losses63

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-13-00-4
Biggest losses0-44-00-34-0
Goals For3134
Goals Against4434

Model comparison

MetricYeclano IISanta Cruz
Form36%64%
Att56%44%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution23%77%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total39.8%60.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Yeclano II vs Santa Cruz