Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Estadio Juan Cayuela
Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.29)
0.96 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% | 35.0% | 42.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.0%
0 - 1
20.1%
1 - 0
12.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Cieza | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Olímpico Totana | 0 | 21.0% | 20.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Cieza carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 51 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Olímpico Totana -13.4, Cieza -13.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Olímpico Totana
vs
Cieza
Elo gapCieza +51
Home / draw / away33% / 24% / 43%
Expected home share43%
Combined Elo3180.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3180.3
Elo home share
43%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1547 | 1633.3 |
| Form Elo | 1551.8 | 1620.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.8 | 1570.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1503.5 | 1637.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1589.3 | 1697.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.4 | -13.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Olímpico Totana last-5 Elo change: -13.4; Cieza last-5 Elo change: -13.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 55% | 36% |
| Defense | 45% | 73% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
59%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 44% | 42% | 69% | 53% | 61% |
| Draws | 40% | 38% | 39% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Loses | 20% | 19% | 19% | 6% | 13% | 10% |
Olímpico TotanaDWWDWLWDWWDWLWLDDWLDLWDDWWDWLDD
CiezaWWLWWWDWWLWWWDWWWDWWWWWDDLDDWDD
League goals
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 19 | 38 | 33 | 21 | 54 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Olímpico Totana | Cieza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 61% | 84% | 48% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 16% | 52% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 0% | 29% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-4 | 5-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Olímpico Totana | Cieza |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 60% | 40% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 44.3% | 55.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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