Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio Campus Universitario
Expected Goals
3.57 (league 1.29)
1.18 (league 1.02)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 65.9% | 10.7% | 8.1% |
best score tips
3 - 1
7.7%
4 - 1
6.9%
3 - 0
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Santomera | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Real Murcia II | 0 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.5% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 4.2% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Real Murcia II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 151 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Real Murcia II -29.2, Santomera -27.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Real Murcia II
vs
Santomera
Elo gapReal Murcia II +151
Home / draw / away58% / 18% / 24%
Expected home share71%
Combined Elo2965.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2965.6
Elo home share
71%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1541 | 1424.6 |
| Form Elo | 1529.6 | 1397.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1534.9 | 1496.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1591.4 | 1492.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1519.1 | 1370.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -29.2 | -27.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Real Murcia II last-5 Elo change: -29.2; Santomera last-5 Elo change: -27.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 20% |
| Attack | 36% | 45% |
| Defense | 27% | 9% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 60% | 44% | 52% | 19% | 20% | 19% |
| Draws | 33% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Loses | 7% | 38% | 23% | 56% | 53% | 55% |
Real Murcia IIWWDWWLDWWWDDLWWWWLDLWWWWWLDLLDD
SantomeraLLDDLWLDLDDLWWLDDDLWLWLLLLLLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 24 | 55 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 17 | 21 | 38 | 25 | 33 | 58 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Real Murcia II | Santomera | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 71% | 58% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 32% | 32% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 29% | 13% | 10% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-4 | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Real Murcia II | Santomera |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 57.8% | 42.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.55 @ Betano
Draw4.20 @ Bet365
Away5.50 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.60 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.30 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.66 @ Marathonbet
No2.05 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…