Sun, May 3 2026 • 16:30 •
Estadio Municipal Sánchez Cánovas
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.30)
0.75 (league 1.04)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 66.4% | 19.3% | 12.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.7%
1 - 0
12.2%
2 - 1
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Yeclano II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Unión Molinense | 0 | 5.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.9% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Unión Molinense carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 193 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Unión Molinense -40.1, Yeclano II -26.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Unión Molinense
vs
Yeclano II
Elo gapUnión Molinense +193
Home / draw / away61% / 18% / 21%
Expected home share75%
Combined Elo2939.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2939.3
Elo home share
75%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1548.6 | 1390.7 |
| Form Elo | 1537.4 | 1382.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.4 | 1465.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1516.7 | 1377.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1578.7 | 1412.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -40.1 | -26.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Unión Molinense last-5 Elo change: -40.1; Yeclano II last-5 Elo change: -26.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 20% |
| Attack | 25% | 20% |
| Defense | 55% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 56% | 47% | 19% | 13% | 16% |
| Draws | 31% | 19% | 25% | 19% | 38% | 28% |
| Loses | 31% | 25% | 28% | 63% | 50% | 56% |
Unión MolinenseWLDLWLWDWWDWWWDLLWWWLDWWWDWLDLDL
Yeclano IIWWLLLDDLDLLLLLLDDWLLLDDDLWDLLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 15 | 42 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 21 | 13 | 34 | 26 | 25 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 72% | 47% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 25% | 13% | 47% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 9% | 6% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Unión Molinense | Yeclano II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 56% | 44% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 75% | 25% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 54.8% | 45.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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