Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 11:00 • Estadio Vicente Sanz
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.53 (league 1.42) 0.71 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
72.5% 14.8% 8.3%
best score tips
2 - 0
12.5%
3 - 0
10.6%
1 - 0
9.9%
Score & goals probability table
Moralo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Don Benito 0 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 9.9% 7.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.5% 8.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.6% 7.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 6.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricDon BenitoMoralo
Played55
Form67%73%
Attack73%73%
Defense73%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

81%
FT probability

2.5+

57%
FT probability

3.5+

41%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Don Benito Moralo
HATHAT
Played79168816
Wins71%56%63%63%25%44%
Draws29%22%25%25%50%38%
Loses0%22%13%13%25%19%

Form: Don Benito: LWWWDWWDDWWLWDWW • Moralo: DDDWLWDLWWLDDWWW

League goals

Metric Don Benito Moralo
HATHAT
GF total171734161026
GF avg2.41.92.12.01.31.6
GA total461091221
GA avg0.60.70.61.11.51.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineDon BenitoMoralo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%44%81%75%
1.550%19%44%31%
2.525%0%19%19%
3.513%0%19%6%
4.513%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricDon BenitoMoralo
HATHAT
Clean sheets459224
Failed to score011033

Penalties

MetricDon BenitoMoralo
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total02

Streaks

MetricDon BenitoMoralo
Wins32
Draws23
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-10-74-11-2
Biggest losses—2-01-33-0
Goals For6744
Goals Against2234

Model comparison

MetricDon BenitoMoralo
Form48%52%
Att50%50%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution79%21%
H2h80%20%
Goals100%0%
Total62.8%37.2%

Advice: Double chance : Don Benito or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.50 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.33 @ Betfair
Away8.25 @ Betano

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Unibet
No1.75 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.95 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Don Benito = 2.53 (league 1.42), Moralo = 0.71 (league 1.10)

Moralo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Don Benito 0 3.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
1 9.9% 7.0% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.5% 8.9% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 10.6% 7.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
4 6.7% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 72.5% · Draw 14.8% · Away win 8.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1