Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:00 •
Estadio Antonio Amaya
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 1.46)
0.70 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.8% | 32.4% | 23.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.2%
0 - 0
17.1%
1 - 1
12.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Calamonte | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atlético Pueblonuevo | 0 | 17.1% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.2% | 12.8% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Atlético Pueblonuevo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 83 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atlético Pueblonuevo +29.5, Calamonte -4.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Atlético Pueblonuevo
vs
Calamonte
Elo gapAtlético Pueblonuevo +83
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo2836.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2836.1
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1442.1 | 1394 |
| Form Elo | 1470.2 | 1383.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.7 | 1463 |
| Attack Elo | 1394.3 | 1384.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1425.4 | 1510.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.5 | -4.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Atlético Pueblonuevo last-5 Elo change: +29.5; Calamonte last-5 Elo change: -4.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 20% |
| Attack | 43% | 36% |
| Defense | 64% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 47% | 0% | 23% | 6% | 13% | 10% |
| Draws | 27% | 6% | 16% | 50% | 33% | 42% |
| Loses | 27% | 94% | 61% | 44% | 53% | 48% |
Atlético PueblonuevoLLLLWLLLLDDDLWLDLLLLLDWLWLWWLWL
CalamonteDLDDLDLLLLDDDWWLLLLDWDDLLLDLDDL
League goals
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 7 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 16 | 38 | 54 | 19 | 20 | 39 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 81% | 55% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 23% | 52% | 23% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 23% | 0% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 10% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atlético Pueblonuevo | Calamonte |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 48.8% | 51.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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