Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Sotoburu
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.56)
0.81 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.9% | 25.7% | 19.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.6%
1 - 1
11.9%
2 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Valle Egüés | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Subiza | 0 | 9.5% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.6% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.2% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Subiza carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 31 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Subiza -1.2, Valle Egüés +25.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Subiza
vs
Valle Egüés
Elo gapSubiza +31
Home / draw / away40% / 26% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3033.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3033.5
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1514.9 | 1518.6 |
| Form Elo | 1506.9 | 1540 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1517.8 | 1508.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1501.5 | 1527.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1560.8 | 1489.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.2 | +25.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Subiza last-5 Elo change: -1.2; Valle Egüés last-5 Elo change: +25.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 35% | 59% |
| Defense | 76% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 15 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 56% | 33% | 45% | 44% | 20% | 32% |
| Draws | 25% | 27% | 26% | 13% | 47% | 29% |
| Loses | 19% | 40% | 29% | 44% | 33% | 39% |
SubizaWLLDDDWWDDLWWWWWWLLWWWDLLDLDWWL
Valle EgüésLLWDWLLWLLLLWDLDDWDLDWDWDLLDWWW
League goals
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 26 | 15 | 41 | 26 | 19 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 11 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 22 | 50 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Subiza | Valle Egüés | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 58% | 81% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 26% | 48% | 48% |
| 2.5 | 19% | 3% | 13% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 3% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 6 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Subiza | Valle Egüés |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 66% | 34% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 80% | 20% |
| Total | 60.8% | 39.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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