Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 17:30 •
Campo Bidezarra de Noain
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.56)
0.73 (league 1.11)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.7% | 32.4% | 24.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.7%
0 - 0
16.7%
1 - 1
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Aoiz | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bidezarra | 0 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Bidezarra carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bidezarra -6.8, Aoiz +0.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Bidezarra
vs
Aoiz
Elo gapBidezarra +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2902.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2902.2
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1456.9 | 1445.3 |
| Form Elo | 1459.3 | 1430.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1490.4 | 1471.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1425.8 | 1470.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1508.5 | 1483.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.8 | +0.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Bidezarra last-5 Elo change: -6.8; Aoiz last-5 Elo change: +0.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 33% |
| Attack | 46% | 38% |
| Defense | 38% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 33% | 25% | 29% | 38% | 13% | 26% |
| Draws | 33% | 13% | 23% | 19% | 33% | 26% |
| Loses | 33% | 63% | 48% | 44% | 53% | 48% |
BidezarraLLLLDLWWDDDWLLLDLLLWWWDLWDWLLLW
AoizWWLLDWWLLLLLLDWLDDWDWLLDLLLDDLW
League goals
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 14 | 31 | 24 | 13 | 37 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 14 | 25 | 39 | 21 | 23 | 44 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bidezarra | Aoiz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 58% | 74% | 77% | 74% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 32% | 32% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 13% | 3% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-3 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bidezarra | Aoiz |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 47% | 53% |
| Poisson Distribution | 60% | 40% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 54.3% | 45.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.55 @ Betano
Draw3.25 @ Betano
Away2.62 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.05 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.75 @ Marathonbet
No1.93 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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