Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:30 •
Estadio San Francisco Javier
Expected Goals
0.66 (league 1.57)
1.21 (league 1.12)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.3% | 30.4% | 49.0% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.6%
0 - 0
15.4%
1 - 1
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Pamplona | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cortes | 0 | 15.4% | 18.6% | 11.2% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 12.3% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Pamplona carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 115 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cortes -37.3, Pamplona +25.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cortes
vs
Pamplona
Elo gapPamplona +115
Home / draw / away28% / 18% / 54%
Expected home share34%
Combined Elo3117
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3117
Elo home share
34%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.7 | 1633.3 |
| Form Elo | 1463.7 | 1659.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1547.6 | 1539.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1469.3 | 1645 |
| Defense Elo | 1489.9 | 1600.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -37.3 | +25.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cortes last-5 Elo change: -37.3; Pamplona last-5 Elo change: +25.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 87% |
| Attack | 21% | 63% |
| Defense | 47% | 74% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
71%
FT probability
2.5+
50%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 56% | 25% | 41% | 75% | 50% | 63% |
| Draws | 25% | 6% | 16% | 19% | 31% | 25% |
| Loses | 19% | 69% | 44% | 6% | 19% | 13% |
CortesWWLWDWWLLLWLLWWWWWLDLLDWLLWLDLLD
PamplonaWLDWWDDLWDWWWWDLWLWWWDWDWWWDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 21 | 15 | 36 | 39 | 24 | 63 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 32 | 47 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cortes | Pamplona | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 78% | 88% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 44% | 63% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 22% | 28% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 16% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cortes | Pamplona |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 13% | 87% |
| Att | 25% | 75% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 35% | 65% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 86% | 14% |
| Total | 46.2% | 53.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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