Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:30 •
Campo de Fútbol Ángel de Vicente
Expected Goals
0.92 (league 1.55)
2.19 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | 19.1% | 63.8% |
best score tips
0 - 2
10.7%
1 - 2
9.8%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Agoncillo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| San Marcial | 0 | 4.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Agoncillo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 21 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: San Marcial -10.5, Agoncillo -2.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
San Marcial
vs
Agoncillo
Elo gapAgoncillo +21
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2991.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2991.8
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1468 | 1523.8 |
| Form Elo | 1470.5 | 1509.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1475.3 | 1531.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1469.6 | 1571.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1387.9 | 1496.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.5 | -2.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. San Marcial last-5 Elo change: -10.5; Agoncillo last-5 Elo change: -2.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 70% | 80% |
| Defense | 0% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 15 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 27% | 31% | 29% | 38% | 47% | 42% |
| Draws | 27% | 25% | 26% | 31% | 20% | 26% |
| Loses | 47% | 44% | 45% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
San MarcialLLLWWDLWDDLLLLLWWDLLDWWLDWLDWLD
AgoncilloWDDLDLLLDWWWLWWDWWDWWLLWLLDWWLD
League goals
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 19 | 35 | 28 | 26 | 54 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 24 | 30 | 54 | 21 | 20 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | San Marcial | Agoncillo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 71% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 32% | 52% | 48% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 19% | 29% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 13% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 10% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-4 | 4-1 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 7-1 | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | San Marcial | Agoncillo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 29% | 71% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 35.8% | 64.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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