Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 14:00 •
Estadio El Salvador
Expected Goals
0.62 (league 1.55)
2.29 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | 16.3% | 72.3% |
best score tips
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 1
12.5%
0 - 3
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| UD Logroñés II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Berceo | 0 | 5.4% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| 1 | 3.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
UD Logroñés II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 217 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Berceo +8.4, UD Logroñés II +23.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Berceo
vs
UD Logroñés II
Elo gapUD Logroñés II +217
Home / draw / away18% / 18% / 64%
Expected home share22%
Combined Elo3194.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3194.9
Elo home share
22%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1471.3 | 1723.6 |
| Form Elo | 1480.7 | 1748.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487 | 1583.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1475.4 | 1974.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1457.9 | 1641.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.4 | +23.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Berceo last-5 Elo change: +8.4; UD Logroñés II last-5 Elo change: +23.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 87% |
| Attack | 80% | 100% |
| Defense | 20% | 70% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 17 | 3.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 40% | 19% | 29% | 88% | 60% | 74% |
| Draws | 27% | 31% | 29% | 13% | 40% | 26% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
BerceoDLLLWLWWLLLDLDLDWWLDDDDWLWDLWWL
UD Logroñés IIDWWWDWDWDDWWWDWDWWWWWWWWWWDWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 14 | 38 | 55 | 29 | 84 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| GA total | 22 | 24 | 46 | 12 | 9 | 21 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Berceo | UD Logroñés II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 74% | 87% | 55% |
| 1.5 | 35% | 42% | 74% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 23% | 45% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 39% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 19% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 10 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 6-1 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 3-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Berceo | UD Logroñés II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 32% | 68% |
| Def | 27% | 73% |
| Poisson Distribution | 22% | 78% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 9% | 91% |
| Total | 25.0% | 75.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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