Sun, May 3 2026 • 16:00 •
Estadio San Roque
Expected Goals
1.29 (league 1.54)
2.19 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6% | 20.2% | 55.5% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.5%
1 - 1
8.7%
0 - 2
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Arnedo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Agoncillo | 0 | 3.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Arnedo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 86 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Agoncillo -9.9, Arnedo +27.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Agoncillo
vs
Arnedo
Elo gapArnedo +86
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3146.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3146.5
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1512.7 | 1633.8 |
| Form Elo | 1496.3 | 1666.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1495.8 | 1551.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1582.6 | 1756.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1476 | 1616.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -9.9 | +27.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Agoncillo last-5 Elo change: -9.9; Arnedo last-5 Elo change: +27.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 87% |
| Attack | 79% | 79% |
| Defense | 36% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 44% | 41% | 63% | 56% | 59% |
| Draws | 31% | 19% | 25% | 25% | 31% | 28% |
| Loses | 31% | 38% | 34% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
AgoncilloWDDLDLLLDWWWLWWDWWDWWLLWLLDWWLDL
ArnedoDWWLLWWWWDDDWDWDDLWWLDWWWWWWWWDW
League goals
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 28 | 29 | 57 | 35 | 34 | 69 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 21 | 24 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Agoncillo | Arnedo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 78% | 81% | 59% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 38% | 63% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 16% | 34% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 6% | 16% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 13% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-6 | 7-1 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-2 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Agoncillo | Arnedo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 35% | 65% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 18% | 82% |
| Poisson Distribution | 36% | 64% |
| H2h | 25% | 75% |
| Goals | 23% | 77% |
| Total | 31.2% | 68.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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