Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 18:00 •
Estadio El Salvador
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.54)
1.32 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.4% | 24.7% | 32.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.5%
2 - 1
9.0%
1 - 0
8.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Yagüe | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Berceo | 0 | 5.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.8% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Berceo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Berceo -0.5, Yagüe -23.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Berceo
vs
Yagüe
Elo gapBerceo +25
Home / draw / away39% / 27% / 34%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo2941.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2941.9
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1466 | 1475.9 |
| Form Elo | 1471 | 1457.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1481.2 | 1504.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.7 | 1473.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1461.9 | 1433 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -0.5 | -23.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Berceo last-5 Elo change: -0.5; Yagüe last-5 Elo change: -23.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 13% |
| Attack | 64% | 21% |
| Defense | 29% | 29% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 19% | 28% | 31% | 25% | 28% |
| Draws | 25% | 31% | 28% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Loses | 38% | 50% | 44% | 31% | 38% | 34% |
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YagüeWLWWLWWLDDDWDDLDLWWDLDLDWLDLDLLD
League goals
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 14 | 39 | 26 | 18 | 44 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 24 | 24 | 48 | 22 | 24 | 46 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Berceo | Yagüe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 75% | 69% | 75% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 44% | 38% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 22% | 16% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 3% | 13% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 4-0 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-6 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 6-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Berceo | Yagüe |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 75% | 25% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 53.7% | 46.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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