Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — Spain
Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:00 • Estadio Municipal Luis De La Fuente
Not Started

Haro Deportivo

—

San Marcial

Expected Goals
2.35 (league 1.54) 1.25 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.5% 19.0% 19.0%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.4%
1 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
San Marcial
0 1 2 3 4 5
Haro Deportivo 0 2.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
1 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
2 7.5% 9.4% 5.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2%
3 5.9% 7.4% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2%
4 3.5% 4.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
5 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

Haro Deportivo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 91 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Haro Deportivo +25.3, San Marcial +9.4.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Haro Deportivo Elo 1534.6 · +25.3
vs
San Marcial Elo 1479 · +9.4
Elo gapHaro Deportivo +91
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo3013.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3013.6
Elo home share 63%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Haro Deportivo San Marcial
Overall Elo1534.61479
Form Elo1557.81484.1
Home / Away Elo1516.61494.6
Attack Elo1570.31490.1
Defense Elo1489.31377.2
Last 5 Elo change+25.3+9.4

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Haro Deportivo last-5 Elo change: +25.3; San Marcial last-5 Elo change: +9.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
Played55
Form73%53%
Attack86%71%
Defense64%21%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.410 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 111 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0-0
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Haro Deportivo San Marcial
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins44%44%44%31%31%31%
Draws31%19%25%25%25%25%
Loses25%38%31%44%44%44%
Haro DeportivoWWLLDLDWDDWLWLLLDLLWWWWWWLDWWWDD
San MarcialLLLWWDLWDDLLLLLWWDLLDWWLDWLDWLDW

League goals

Metric Haro Deportivo San Marcial
HATHAT
GF total312354201939
GF avg1.91.41.71.31.21.2
GA total212445273057
GA avg1.31.51.41.71.91.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%66%69%72%
1.553%50%34%53%
2.522%16%13%22%
3.56%6%6%13%
4.53%3%0%9%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
HATHAT
Clean sheets6511369
Failed to score1455510

Penalties

MetricHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total12

Streaks

MetricHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
Wins62
Draws22
Losses35

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-02-54-30-4
Biggest losses2-53-00-47-1
Goals For4544
Goals Against5347

Model comparison

MetricHaro DeportivoSan Marcial
Form58%42%
Att55%45%
Def69%31%
Poisson Distribution66%34%
H2h0%100%
Goals33%67%
Total56.2%43.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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