Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:30 •
Estadio Papa Luna
Expected Goals
1.00 (league 1.26)
1.96 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 18.7% | 21.5% | 58.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
10.2%
1 - 1
10.1%
0 - 2
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Atlético Monzón | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Illueca | 0 | 5.2% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Atlético Monzón carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 157 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Illueca +14.9, Atlético Monzón +34.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Illueca
vs
Atlético Monzón
Elo gapAtlético Monzón +157
Home / draw / away24% / 18% / 58%
Expected home share29%
Combined Elo3119.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3119.8
Elo home share
29%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1464 | 1655.8 |
| Form Elo | 1482.4 | 1670 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1477.4 | 1559.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1446.6 | 1771.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1438.4 | 1564.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.9 | +34.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Illueca last-5 Elo change: +14.9; Atlético Monzón last-5 Elo change: +34.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 100% |
| Attack | 19% | 100% |
| Defense | 75% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 16 | 3.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 25% | 25% | 25% | 81% | 56% | 69% |
| Draws | 38% | 31% | 34% | 13% | 6% | 9% |
| Loses | 38% | 44% | 41% | 6% | 38% | 22% |
IlluecaDDWDDWDWLLDLLDLLLLDLLDWWLDWLWLDW
Atlético MonzónWDWLWLWDWWWWLWLWLWWDWWWWLWLWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 17 | 32 | 41 | 28 | 69 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 18 | 30 | 48 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Illueca | Atlético Monzón | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 81% | 81% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 25% | 38% | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 19% | 41% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 16% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 2-3 | 7-2 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 5-0 | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Illueca | Atlético Monzón |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 16% | 84% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 46% | 54% |
| Total | 36.0% | 64.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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