Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:30 •
Estadio Municipal Juan Guerrero El Lobo
Expected Goals
1.55 (league 1.26)
0.27 (league 1.01)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% | 23.6% | 6.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
25.1%
2 - 0
19.5%
0 - 0
16.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Almudévar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cuarte | 0 | 16.2% | 4.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 25.1% | 6.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.5% | 5.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Cuarte carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 196 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Cuarte +2.4, Almudévar -19.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Cuarte
vs
Almudévar
Elo gapCuarte +196
Home / draw / away62% / 18% / 20%
Expected home share76%
Combined Elo3128.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3128.3
Elo home share
76%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1644.8 | 1483.5 |
| Form Elo | 1644.9 | 1473 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1566.2 | 1488.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1506.5 | 1442.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1700.8 | 1526.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +2.4 | -19.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Cuarte last-5 Elo change: +2.4; Almudévar last-5 Elo change: -19.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 38% | 31% |
| Defense | 81% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
55%
FT probability
2.5+
39%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
56%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 75% | 44% | 59% | 44% | 25% | 34% |
| Draws | 25% | 56% | 41% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Loses | 0% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 50% | 41% |
CuarteDWDWWDDWWWDDWDWWWWWWWWDWWDDWWDDD
AlmudévarLLLWLDLWDLDDWWWLWLWLDDDWWDLWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 18 | 40 | 17 | 14 | 31 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 4 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 35 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cuarte | Almudévar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 31% | 63% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 3% | 22% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 0% | 9% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 12 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 0 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cuarte | Almudévar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 88% | 12% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 91% | 9% |
| Total | 72.2% | 27.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…