Sun, Mar 1 2026 • 11:00 • Estadio Municipal de Illescas
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.41 (league 1.31) 0.49 (league 0.98)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.6% 49.2% 28.2%
best score tips
0 - 0
40.6%
0 - 1
19.9%
1 - 0
16.7%
Score & goals probability table
Villarrubia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Illescas 0 40.6% 19.9% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.7% 8.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricIllescasVillarrubia
Played55
Form7%47%
Attack22%44%
Defense33%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.44 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.24 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

51%
FT probability

2.5+

36%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

53%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Illescas Villarrubia
HATHAT
Played111223111223
Wins18%25%22%73%25%48%
Draws64%8%35%0%42%22%
Loses18%67%43%27%33%30%

Form: Illescas: DDWDLLWDWWLDLDLDLWLDLLL • Villarrubia: WDWDWDLLWLWLWWLWWDWDLLW

League goals

Metric Illescas Villarrubia
HATHAT
GF total7916201030
GF avg0.60.80.71.80.81.3
GA total72027111122
GA avg0.61.71.21.00.91.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineIllescasVillarrubia
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%65%70%70%
1.517%35%48%17%
2.54%13%13%9%
3.50%4%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricIllescasVillarrubia
HATHAT
Clean sheets628347
Failed to score6612167

Penalties

MetricIllescasVillarrubia
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricIllescasVillarrubia
Wins22
Draws21
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-33-00-3
Biggest losses0-24-02-33-0
Goals For2333
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricIllescasVillarrubia
Form13%88%
Att33%67%
Def40%60%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h85%15%
Goals70%30%
Total48.0%52.2%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Villarrubia and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.70 @ Unibet
Draw3.02 @ Pinnacle
Away3.05 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.38 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.53 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.97 @ Marathonbet
No1.75 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Illescas = 0.41 (league 1.31), Villarrubia = 0.49 (league 0.98)

Villarrubia
0 1 2 3 4 5
Illescas 0 40.6% 19.9% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.7% 8.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.6% · Draw 49.2% · Away win 28.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1