Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Estadio San Miguel
Expected Goals
1.56 (league 1.28)
0.88 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 52.9% | 25.4% | 21.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
11.9%
2 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Sonseca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Azuqueca | 0 | 8.7% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Azuqueca carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 91 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Azuqueca -6.7, Sonseca -14.7.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Azuqueca
vs
Sonseca
Elo gapAzuqueca +91
Home / draw / away50% / 20% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2794
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2794
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1425 | 1369 |
| Form Elo | 1427.7 | 1363.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1460.9 | 1423.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1394.6 | 1418.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1502.1 | 1316.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.7 | -14.7 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Azuqueca last-5 Elo change: -6.7; Sonseca last-5 Elo change: -14.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 20% |
| Attack | 46% | 46% |
| Defense | 38% | 15% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 13% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 0% | 10% |
| Draws | 47% | 38% | 42% | 31% | 13% | 23% |
| Loses | 40% | 50% | 45% | 50% | 87% | 68% |
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SonsecaDDLLDLLLDLLLLDLLLLWLLDWLDLWLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 12 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 24 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 18 | 20 | 38 | 28 | 37 | 65 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Azuqueca | Sonseca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 55% | 68% | 55% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 42% | 16% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 10% | 6% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 1-3 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-1 | 1-7 | 6-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Azuqueca | Sonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 64% | 36% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 54.4% | 45.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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