Sat, May 2 2026 • 15:30 •
Wetterkreuzstadion Bad Sauerbrunn
Expected Goals
0.74 (league 1.71)
2.15 (league 1.43)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.5% | 18.6% | 67.7% |
best score tips
0 - 2
12.9%
0 - 1
12.0%
1 - 2
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Mattersburg 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bad Sauerbrunn | 0 | 5.6% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Mattersburg 2020 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 115 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bad Sauerbrunn +22.0, Mattersburg 2020 +19.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Bad Sauerbrunn
vs
Mattersburg 2020
Elo gapMattersburg 2020 +115
Home / draw / away28% / 18% / 54%
Expected home share34%
Combined Elo3140.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3140.5
Elo home share
34%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1495.3 | 1645.2 |
| Form Elo | 1495.9 | 1669.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.9 | 1566.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1519 | 1725.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1500.6 | 1567 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +22.0 | +19.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Bad Sauerbrunn last-5 Elo change: +22.0; Mattersburg 2020 last-5 Elo change: +19.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 73% |
| Attack | 43% | 43% |
| Defense | 86% | 76% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
88%
FT probability
2.5+
62%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 42% | 25% | 33% | 83% | 64% | 74% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 17% | 36% | 26% |
| Loses | 25% | 42% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bad SauerbrunnWLWDDLWLWLDLWDLDDLDDWLWW
Mattersburg 2020WWDWWDWWWWWWWWWDDWWDDWW
League goals
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 16 | 33 | 28 | 31 | 59 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| GA total | 13 | 19 | 32 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 67% | 100% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 42% | 78% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 21% | 43% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 17% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 9 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 3-5 | 4-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bad Sauerbrunn | Mattersburg 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 48% | 52% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 27% | 73% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 38.0% | 62.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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