Fri, May 1 2026 • 15:00 •
Sportplatz Welzenegg
Expected Goals
1.62 (league 2.01)
0.86 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 54.6% | 24.8% | 19.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.6%
1 - 1
11.7%
2 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Grafenstein | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SAK Klagenfurt | 0 | 8.4% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 11.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
SAK Klagenfurt carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 77 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SAK Klagenfurt +30.8, Grafenstein +14.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
SAK Klagenfurt
vs
Grafenstein
Elo gapSAK Klagenfurt +77
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3044
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3044
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1543.1 | 1500.9 |
| Form Elo | 1554.7 | 1499 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1540.8 | 1494.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1619.7 | 1499.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.6 | 1481.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.8 | +14.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. SAK Klagenfurt last-5 Elo change: +30.8; Grafenstein last-5 Elo change: +14.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 60% | 30% |
| Defense | 80% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
89%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 9 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 |
| Wins | 33% | 18% | 25% | 44% | 30% | 37% |
| Draws | 44% | 18% | 30% | 44% | 10% | 26% |
| Loses | 22% | 64% | 45% | 11% | 60% | 37% |
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GrafensteinWLDWWDLWWDLLLDLDWWL
League goals
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 19 | 35 | 19 | 10 | 29 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 11 | 22 | 33 | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 90% | 79% | 89% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% | 42% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 21% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 5% | 11% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-2 | 1-6 | 3-1 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 4-2 | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SAK Klagenfurt | Grafenstein |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.2% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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