Landesliga - Karnten — Austria
Fri, May 1 2026 • 15:00 • Sportplatz Ferlach
Not Started

Ferlach

—

Dellach im Gailtal

Expected Goals
1.08 (league 2.01) 1.55 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.3% 25.4% 47.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
11.2%
1 - 2
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
Dellach im Gailtal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Ferlach 0 7.2% 11.2% 8.7% 4.5% 1.7% 0.5%
1 7.8% 12.1% 9.4% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.2% 6.5% 5.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3%
3 1.5% 2.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Dellach im Gailtal carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 40 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ferlach -9.5, Dellach im Gailtal +28.1.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Ferlach Elo 1423.2 · -9.5
vs
Dellach im Gailtal Elo 1498.1 · +28.1
Elo gapDellach im Gailtal +40
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo2921.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2921.3
Elo home share 44%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Ferlach Dellach im Gailtal
Overall Elo1423.21498.1
Form Elo1417.11513
Home / Away Elo1504.81487.8
Attack Elo1476.21565
Defense Elo1306.31452.2
Last 5 Elo change-9.5+28.1

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Ferlach last-5 Elo change: -9.5; Dellach im Gailtal last-5 Elo change: +28.1.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFerlachDellach im Gailtal
Played55
Form33%60%
Attack35%25%
Defense40%65%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)12 | 2.47 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

71%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Ferlach Dellach im Gailtal
HATHAT
Played1091911920
Wins40%0%21%55%11%35%
Draws20%33%26%9%56%30%
Loses40%67%53%36%33%35%
FerlachDLDLLDWLLLWLWLDLLDW
Dellach im GailtalDLLLDLWWDDLDDWWLLWWW

League goals

Metric Ferlach Dellach im Gailtal
HATHAT
GF total12517251136
GF avg1.20.60.92.31.21.8
GA total182139201636
GA avg1.82.32.11.81.81.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFerlachDellach im Gailtal
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.574%74%80%75%
1.516%58%60%50%
2.50%42%20%30%
3.50%16%15%20%
4.50%11%5%5%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFerlachDellach im Gailtal
HATHAT
Clean sheets415325
Failed to score145044

Penalties

MetricFerlachDellach im Gailtal
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFerlachDellach im Gailtal
Wins12
Draws12
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-0—5-11-4
Biggest losses1-65-11-45-2
Goals For2154
Goals Against6545

Model comparison

MetricFerlachDellach im Gailtal
Form36%64%
Att58%42%
Def37%63%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h20%80%
Goals27%73%
Total36.8%63.2%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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