Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 15:00 •
Fresh Energy Arena
Expected Goals
2.89 (league 1.82)
0.78 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 73.1% | 12.4% | 7.2% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.6%
3 - 0
10.3%
2 - 1
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Gschwandt | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| St. Martin i.M. | 0 | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.4% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
St. Martin i.M. carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 147 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: St. Martin i.M. +18.2, Gschwandt +1.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
St. Martin i.M.
vs
Gschwandt
Elo gapSt. Martin i.M. +147
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo3007.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3007.4
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1559.5 | 1447.9 |
| Form Elo | 1572.3 | 1441.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510 | 1479.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1591.3 | 1415.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1453.7 | 1434.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +18.2 | +1.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. St. Martin i.M. last-5 Elo change: +18.2; Gschwandt last-5 Elo change: +1.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 67% | 50% |
| Defense | 42% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 30% | 42% | 36% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Draws | 30% | 42% | 36% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Loses | 40% | 17% | 27% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
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GschwandtLLLLLDWLLLDLDLWLLDLWLW
League goals
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 21 | 45 | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| GA total | 23 | 17 | 40 | 28 | 24 | 52 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 82% | 55% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 68% | 50% | 9% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 32% | 5% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 18% | 5% | 32% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 18% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-4 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-5 | 7-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | St. Martin i.M. | Gschwandt |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 76% | 24% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 62.4% | 37.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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