Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 15:00 •
Sportplatz Red Star Auto
Expected Goals
1.12 (league 1.68)
1.00 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.1% | 29.8% | 32.0% |
best score tips
1 - 0
13.5%
1 - 1
13.4%
0 - 0
12.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Dinamo Helfort | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Red Star Penzing | 0 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.5% | 13.4% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Red Star Penzing +36.0, Dinamo Helfort -21.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Red Star Penzing
vs
Dinamo Helfort
Elo gapDinamo Helfort +17
Home / draw / away35% / 28% / 37%
Expected home share48%
Combined Elo3127.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3127.2
Elo home share
48%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1537.6 | 1589.6 |
| Form Elo | 1555.7 | 1590.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1519.2 | 1557 |
| Attack Elo | 1564.2 | 1697.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1516.7 | 1502.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +36.0 | -21.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Red Star Penzing last-5 Elo change: +36.0; Dinamo Helfort last-5 Elo change: -21.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 50% | 90% |
| Defense | 70% | 20% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
82%
FT probability
2.5+
58%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
67%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Wins | 36% | 44% | 40% | 82% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 55% | 11% | 35% | 0% | 30% | 14% |
| Loses | 9% | 44% | 25% | 18% | 20% | 19% |
Red Star PenzingWDLWWLDLWLDLWDWDWDDW
Dinamo HelfortWWWWDWLWWWDWDWWWLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 12 | 31 | 28 | 18 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| GA total | 9 | 14 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| GA avg | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 65% | 81% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 40% | 30% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 15% | 48% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 5% | 24% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-1 | 3-4 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Red Star Penzing | Dinamo Helfort |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 32% | 68% |
| Total | 48.5% | 51.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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