Fri, Oct 3 2025 • 00:30 • Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.45) 1.16 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.0% 23.7% 25.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 1
9.7%
1 - 0
9.6%
Score & goals probability table
Cienciano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FBC Melgar 0 5.5% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 9.6% 11.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFBC MelgarCienciano
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack65%59%
Defense59%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.48 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric FBC Melgar Cienciano
HATHAT
Played141529141428
Wins50%27%38%50%14%32%
Draws21%60%41%29%50%39%
Loses29%13%21%21%36%29%

Form: FBC Melgar: WWWWWWLLDDWDDWDLDDWLDDLWDLDWD • Cienciano: DLLWDDLDWWLDWDWDDLLDLWDWWDLW

League goals

Metric FBC Melgar Cienciano
HATHAT
GF total251944291645
GF avg1.81.31.52.11.11.6
GA total141933191938
GA avg1.01.31.11.41.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFBC MelgarCienciano
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%83%82%79%
1.538%24%50%39%
2.514%3%18%11%
3.57%3%4%4%
4.53%0%4%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFBC MelgarCienciano
HATHAT
Clean sheets325246
Failed to score224145

Penalties

MetricFBC MelgarCienciano
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricFBC MelgarCienciano
Wins62
Draws22
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-12-36-10-3
Biggest losses0-24-12-35-2
Goals For6363
Goals Against2435

Model comparison

MetricFBC MelgarCienciano
Form38%63%
Att52%48%
Def53%47%
Poisson Distribution57%43%
H2h80%20%
Goals64%36%
Total57.3%42.8%

Advice: Double chance : FBC Melgar or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.80 @ William Hill
Draw3.95 @ Betano
Away4.55 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.15 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): FBC Melgar = 1.74 (league 1.45), Cienciano = 1.16 (league 0.95)

Cienciano
0 1 2 3 4 5
FBC Melgar 0 5.5% 6.4% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
1 9.6% 11.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%
2 8.3% 9.7% 5.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1%
3 4.8% 5.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
4 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
5 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 50.0% · Draw 23.7% · Away win 25.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1