Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 17:00 • Estadio Heraclio Tapia
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.55 (league 1.47) 1.54 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.1% 25.3% 61.1%
best score tips
0 - 1
19.1%
0 - 2
14.7%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
Alianza Lima
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Universidad 0 12.4% 19.1% 14.7% 7.5% 2.9% 0.9%
1 6.8% 10.5% 8.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
2 1.9% 2.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
Played55
Form20%47%
Attack31%63%
Defense13%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

67%
FT probability

2.5+

47%
FT probability

3.5+

34%
FT probability

BTTS

62%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alianza Universidad Alianza Lima
HATHAT
Played141529151429
Wins14%20%17%60%50%55%
Draws29%13%21%27%21%24%
Loses57%67%62%13%29%21%

Form: Alianza Universidad: DLLLDLLWDLLLDDLLWLLLWLDWWLLLL • Alianza Lima: WLWWWLDWWLDWWDWWWDLDWDWWDLWLW

League goals

Metric Alianza Universidad Alianza Lima
HATHAT
GF total131528281240
GF avg0.91.01.01.90.91.4
GA total223456101323
GA avg1.62.31.90.70.90.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.562%83%76%48%
1.531%59%34%17%
2.53%34%17%10%
3.50%14%7%3%
4.50%3%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
HATHAT
Clean sheets3258715
Failed to score6511347

Penalties

MetricAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%8 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total28

Streaks

MetricAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
Wins23
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-35-11-2
Biggest losses0-35-13-43-0
Goals For2352
Goals Against3543

Model comparison

MetricAlianza UniversidadAlianza Lima
Form30%70%
Att33%67%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h50%50%
Goals44%56%
Total36.5%63.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Alianza Lima

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.65 @ 188Bet
Draw3.70 @ Unibet
Away2.10 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.89 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.91 @ 188Bet
No2.12 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alianza Universidad = 0.55 (league 1.47), Alianza Lima = 1.54 (league 0.94)

Alianza Lima
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alianza Universidad 0 12.4% 19.1% 14.7% 7.5% 2.9% 0.9%
1 6.8% 10.5% 8.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5%
2 1.9% 2.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
3 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 13.1% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 61.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1