Sun, Oct 5 2025 • 20:00 • Estadio Campeones del 36
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.45) 1.23 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.4% 25.9% 32.2%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.3%
1 - 0
10.0%
2 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Grau 0 7.0% 8.6% 5.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.3% 7.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.1% 8.8% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
Played55
Form67%53%
Attack56%69%
Defense75%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.811 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

74%
FT probability

2.5+

52%
FT probability

3.5+

37%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Grau FBC Melgar
HATHAT
Played141529151530
Wins50%13%31%53%27%40%
Draws36%27%31%20%60%40%
Loses14%60%38%27%13%20%

Form: Atletico Grau: WLLWDDDDLDDWWDLLWLWLDLLLWWDWL • FBC Melgar: WWWWWWLLDDWDDWDLDDWLDDLWDLDWDW

League goals

Metric Atletico Grau FBC Melgar
HATHAT
GF total221739271946
GF avg1.61.11.31.81.31.5
GA total122739141933
GA avg0.91.81.30.91.31.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.579%72%87%80%
1.541%41%40%23%
2.514%17%13%3%
3.50%3%7%3%
4.50%0%3%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
HATHAT
Clean sheets628426
Failed to score246224

Penalties

MetricAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
Scored (total | %)8 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total82

Streaks

MetricAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
Wins26
Draws42
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-26-12-3
Biggest losses0-23-00-24-1
Goals For3363
Goals Against3424

Model comparison

MetricAtletico GrauFBC Melgar
Form56%44%
Att45%55%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution54%46%
H2h38%62%
Goals45%55%
Total49.0%51.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or FBC Melgar

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.53 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.20 @ 188Bet
Away3.25 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.15 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.86 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.83 @ Bet365
No2.07 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Atletico Grau = 1.43 (league 1.45), FBC Melgar = 1.23 (league 0.95)

FBC Melgar
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Grau 0 7.0% 8.6% 5.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
1 10.0% 12.3% 7.6% 3.1% 1.0% 0.2%
2 7.1% 8.8% 5.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
3 3.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
4 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.4% · Draw 25.9% · Away win 32.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1