Thu, Feb 19 2026 • 10:30 • Venue TBA
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.20 (league 1.50) 1.42 (league 1.21)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
31.7% 26.1% 41.7%
best score tips
1 - 1
12.4%
0 - 1
10.3%
1 - 2
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
Mingəçevir
0 1 2 3 4 5
Safa Baku 0 7.3% 10.3% 7.3% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.8% 12.4% 8.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
2 5.3% 7.4% 5.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
3 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSafa BakuMingəçevir
Played55
Form60%60%
Attack63%88%
Defense75%75%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 17 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)2 | 0.42 | 0.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

78%
FT probability

2.5+

55%
FT probability

3.5+

39%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Safa Baku Mingəçevir
HATHAT
Played77147714
Wins43%86%64%43%57%50%
Draws57%14%36%29%29%29%
Loses0%0%0%29%14%21%

Form: Safa Baku: WWWWWDWDWDWWDD • Mingəçevir: LWWDWWLWLWDDWD

League goals

Metric Safa Baku Mingəçevir
HATHAT
GF total141428111324
GF avg2.02.02.01.61.91.7
GA total6397613
GA avg0.90.40.61.00.90.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSafa BakuMingəçevir
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.593%50%79%57%
1.564%14%57%29%
2.529%0%36%7%
3.514%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSafa BakuMingəçevir
HATHAT
Clean sheets257336
Failed to score011123

Penalties

MetricSafa BakuMingəçevir
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricSafa BakuMingəçevir
Wins52
Draws12
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-10-43-10-3
Biggest losses2-32-0
Goals For4433
Goals Against2232

Model comparison

MetricSafa BakuMingəçevir
Form50%50%
Att42%58%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution46%54%
H2h100%0%
Goals60%40%
Total49.6%50.4%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Safa Baku or draw and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.65 @ Betano
Draw3.75 @ Bet365
Away5.43 @ 1xBet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.00 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.80 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.00 @ Betfair
No1.82 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Safa Baku = 1.20 (league 1.50), Mingəçevir = 1.42 (league 1.21)

Mingəçevir
0 1 2 3 4 5
Safa Baku 0 7.3% 10.3% 7.3% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3%
1 8.8% 12.4% 8.8% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
2 5.3% 7.4% 5.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
3 2.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
4 0.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.7% · Draw 26.1% · Away win 41.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1