Sat, Oct 11 2025 • 18:00 • Estádio Ariston Azevedo
Match Finished
Expected Goals
5.67 (league 1.76) 0.40 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.5% 1.1% 0.3%
best score tips
5 - 0
11.2%
4 - 0
9.9%
3 - 0
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Boca Júnior
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frei Paulistano 0 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 11.2% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
Played44
Form33%25%
Attack64%27%
Defense36%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.83 | 0.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.813 | 3.3

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

81%
FT probability

3.5+

58%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Frei Paulistano Boca Júnior
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins50%0%25%50%0%25%
Draws0%50%25%0%0%0%
Loses50%50%50%50%100%75%

Form: Frei Paulistano: LDWL • Boca Júnior: LWLL

League goals

Metric Frei Paulistano Boca Júnior
HATHAT
GF total437213
GF avg2.01.51.81.00.50.8
GA total25731013
GA avg1.02.51.81.55.03.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.550%100%50%75%
1.550%50%25%75%
2.550%25%0%50%
3.525%0%0%25%
4.50%0%0%25%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
HATHAT
Clean sheets000101
Failed to score112112

Penalties

MetricFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
Wins11
Draws10
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-12-0
Biggest losses0-12-00-38-1
Goals For4321
Goals Against1338

Model comparison

MetricFrei PaulistanoBoca Júnior
Form57%43%
Att70%30%
Def65%35%
Poisson Distribution92%8%
H2h100%0%
Goals83%17%
Total73.4%26.6%

Advice: Combo Winner : Frei Paulistano and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.12 @ Betano
Draw9.50 @ Marathonbet
Away20.00 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.30 @ Bet365
Under 2.54.05 @ Marathonbet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.48 @ 1xBet
No2.45 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Frei Paulistano = 5.67 (league 1.76), Boca Júnior = 0.40 (league 1.24)

Boca Júnior
0 1 2 3 4 5
Frei Paulistano 0 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 3.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 7.0% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 9.9% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 11.2% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.5% · Draw 1.1% · Away win 0.3%

vtt 1 , vtd1