Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:30 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.57 (league 1.60)
1.71 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 11.9% | 22.9% | 64.4% |
best score tips
0 - 1
17.5%
0 - 2
15.0%
0 - 0
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Bari U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Crotone U19 | 0 | 10.2% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Bari U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 95 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Crotone U19 -38.6, Bari U19 -4.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Crotone U19
vs
Bari U19
Elo gapBari U19 +95
Home / draw / away30% / 19% / 51%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo2771.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2771.9
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1321.1 | 1450.8 |
| Form Elo | 1308.1 | 1438.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1422.8 | 1477.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1349.5 | 1448.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1294.6 | 1489.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -38.6 | -4.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Crotone U19 last-5 Elo change: -38.6; Bari U19 last-5 Elo change: -4.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 33% |
| Attack | 23% | 32% |
| Defense | 14% | 59% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 19 | 3.8 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
75%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 8% | 0% | 4% | 29% | 23% | 26% |
| Draws | 38% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
| Loses | 54% | 71% | 63% | 43% | 46% | 44% |
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Bari U19LWDWDLWWDDDWDLLLLLLLLWLWLDD
League goals
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 24 | 30 | 54 | 21 | 17 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 85% | 74% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 19% | 52% | 33% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 15% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 8 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | — | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 7-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Crotone U19 | Bari U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 32% | 68% |
| Poisson Distribution | 24% | 76% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 41.4% | 58.6% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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