Sun, Jan 11 2026 • 13:00 • Umuganda Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.33 (league 1.19) 0.56 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
17.4% 49.1% 33.6%
best score tips
0 - 0
41.2%
0 - 1
23.1%
1 - 0
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Bugesera
0 1 2 3 4 5
Etincelles 0 41.2% 23.1% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 7.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEtincellesBugesera
Played55
Form7%47%
Attack20%50%
Defense30%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)2 | 0.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

0.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

49%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

54%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Etincelles Bugesera
HATHAT
Played88168816
Wins0%13%6%50%0%25%
Draws50%50%50%13%50%31%
Loses50%38%44%38%50%44%

Form: Etincelles: DLDDDDDDLLWLLDLL • Bugesera: WDDDLLDLWLLLWDWL

League goals

Metric Etincelles Bugesera
HATHAT
GF total29117512
GF avg0.31.10.70.90.60.8
GA total7132061016
GA avg0.91.61.30.81.31.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEtincellesBugesera
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.556%81%63%56%
1.56%31%13%31%
2.56%6%0%13%
3.50%6%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEtincellesBugesera
HATHAT
Clean sheets303437
Failed to score617336

Penalties

MetricEtincellesBugesera
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricEtincellesBugesera
Wins11
Draws63
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—1-32-1—
Biggest losses0-24-12-33-1
Goals For1321
Goals Against2433

Model comparison

MetricEtincellesBugesera
Form13%88%
Att29%71%
Def46%54%
Poisson Distribution36%64%
H2h62%38%
Goals53%47%
Total39.8%60.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Bugesera and -3.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.47 @ Dafabet
Draw2.88 @ Bet365
Away3.12 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.20 @ Betfair
No1.62 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.75 @ Betfair
Under 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Etincelles = 0.33 (league 1.19), Bugesera = 0.56 (league 0.96)

Bugesera
0 1 2 3 4 5
Etincelles 0 41.2% 23.1% 6.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
1 13.5% 7.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
2 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
3 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 17.4% · Draw 49.1% · Away win 33.6%

vtt 2 , vtd1