Premier League — Ghana
Sun, May 3 2026 • 15:00 • Agyeman Badu Stadium
Not Started

Aduana Stars

—

Heart of Lions

Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.33) 0.51 (league 0.62)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
50.7% 32.3% 16.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
21.8%
0 - 0
19.4%
2 - 0
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
Heart of Lions
0 1 2 3 4 5
Aduana Stars 0 19.4% 10.0% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
1 21.8% 11.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
2 12.3% 6.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
3 4.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Aduana Stars carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Aduana Stars -1.2, Heart of Lions +7.5.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Aduana Stars Elo 1543.8 · -1.2
vs
Heart of Lions Elo 1513.3 · +7.5
Elo gapAduana Stars +66
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3057.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3057.1
Elo home share 59%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Aduana Stars Heart of Lions
Overall Elo1543.81513.3
Form Elo1540.91504.4
Home / Away Elo1554.61482
Attack Elo1448.51470.5
Defense Elo1651.41567.1
Last 5 Elo change-1.2+7.5

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Aduana Stars last-5 Elo change: -1.2; Heart of Lions last-5 Elo change: +7.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAduana StarsHeart of Lions
Played55
Form47%53%
Attack31%31%
Defense75%69%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 15 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.50
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

51%
FT probability

2.5+

36%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

52%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-2
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Aduana Stars Heart of Lions
HATHAT
Played151429141529
Wins53%29%41%64%7%34%
Draws40%21%31%14%40%28%
Loses7%50%28%21%53%38%
Aduana StarsLWWLWWWWDDWLDWDDLWLWDDDLWLDLW
Heart of LionsWWWDDLWDWWDDLLLLDLWLWLLLWDLWD

League goals

Metric Aduana Stars Heart of Lions
HATHAT
GF total151126161228
GF avg1.00.80.91.10.81.0
GA total6121852227
GA avg0.40.90.60.41.50.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAduana StarsHeart of Lions
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.555%55%59%55%
1.531%7%24%28%
2.53%0%10%10%
3.50%0%3%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAduana StarsHeart of Lions
HATHAT
Clean sheets941310313
Failed to score76134812

Penalties

MetricAduana StarsHeart of Lions
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAduana StarsHeart of Lions
Wins43
Draws32
Losses14

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-23-01-4
Biggest losses0-12-11-23-0
Goals For3234
Goals Against1223

Model comparison

MetricAduana StarsHeart of Lions
Form47%53%
Att50%50%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution68%32%
H2h71%29%
Goals60%40%
Total58.7%41.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Venue page • Aduana Stars vs Heart of Lions