Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 14:00 • Mustapekka Areena
Match Finished
1 - 3
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.65) 2.54 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
15.9% 17.4% 62.1%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 3
7.8%
0 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
Ilves
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gnistan 0 2.4% 6.1% 7.8% 6.6% 4.2% 2.1%
1 2.9% 7.3% 9.2% 7.8% 4.9% 2.5%
2 1.7% 4.3% 5.5% 4.6% 2.9% 1.5%
3 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGnistanIlves
Played55
Form20%33%
Attack45%40%
Defense25%55%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)15 | 39 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Gnistan Ilves
HATHAT
Played141428141428
Wins29%29%29%64%50%57%
Draws21%29%25%21%14%18%
Loses50%43%46%14%36%25%

Form: Gnistan: LLWLWWDDLWDDLDWLLDWDWLLLLWLL • Ilves: WWWLLWLWDWWLWWDWWDLWWWWWDLDL

League goals

Metric Gnistan Ilves
HATHAT
GF total202343283159
GF avg1.41.61.52.02.22.1
GA total272956191938
GA avg1.92.12.01.41.41.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGnistanIlves
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.575%79%93%68%
1.554%71%64%46%
2.518%29%36%14%
3.54%14%14%4%
4.54%4%4%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGnistanIlves
HATHAT
Clean sheets336369
Failed to score437112

Penalties

MetricGnistanIlves
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%7 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total47

Streaks

MetricGnistanIlves
Wins25
Draws21
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-02-53-00-5
Biggest losses0-46-22-35-1
Goals For3535
Goals Against4635

Model comparison

MetricGnistanIlves
Form38%63%
Att53%47%
Def38%63%
Poisson Distribution31%69%
H2h29%71%
Goals39%61%
Total38.0%62.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Ilves and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.21 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.86 @ Pinnacle
Away1.66 @ Dafabet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.37 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.53.21 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ 188Bet
No2.87 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Gnistan = 1.19 (league 1.65), Ilves = 2.54 (league 1.65)

Ilves
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gnistan 0 2.4% 6.1% 7.8% 6.6% 4.2% 2.1%
1 2.9% 7.3% 9.2% 7.8% 4.9% 2.5%
2 1.7% 4.3% 5.5% 4.6% 2.9% 1.5%
3 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.6%
4 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 15.9% · Draw 17.4% · Away win 62.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1